Archive for » February, 2012 «

Loudoun and Fauquier home sales

These were among transactions recorded by the Loudoun Office of the County Assessor.

ALDIE AREA

Cherish Ct., 42074-Venkata K. Muddu and Padmasini Pantula to Edward R. Taylor, $410,000.

Kudu Ct., 42027-HTP Corp. to Terry G. Campbell II, $670,000.

Trilobite Ct., 25030-Mian Pinkett Young to Jason Mohler, $540,000.

ALGONKIAN PARK AREA

Ashcroft Terr., 20379-Carlos E. Angarita to Fannie Mae, $321,274.

Blockhouse Point Pl., 47767-Thomas P. Clines to Fernando Gutierrez Sol, $710,000.

Exeter Ct., 3-Neal V. Eby to Matthew J. Gottshalk, $545,000.

Jermyn Ct., 1-Adam C. Portzel to HSBC Bank, $233,750.

Morningside Terr., 20514-Kimberly Hanson Kay to Sherry Yang and Jiye Luo, $265,000.

Noble Terr., 20804, No. 209-Roberta S. Schrage to Lorraine H. Cady, $310,000.

Pitt Terr., 20868-Sylvie Dugrenier to Soon H. Lim and Boran Kim, $303,000.

Scotsborough Sq., 47849-Peter C. Lierni to Richard S. Davis, $399,000.

Worthington Ct., 21-Peter E. Jeziorski and Kelly K. Mitchell to Thomas L. Bell II, $315,000.

ASHBURN AREA

Ascot Ct., 21748-Lisa A. Roche to Daren W. Ross, $250,000.

Beechwood Terr., 20301, No. 201-Muthia Vaithianadhan to Mathai Sony and Shamkant Aras, $174,000.

Boxwood Pl., 20181-Dorian O. Ritchie to Michelle Gibbs and Linda D. Williams Baffoe, $570,000.

Carthagena Ct., 21109-Cora McManis to Rosalind Singh, $836,000.

Chamberlain Terr., 44485, No. 200-William J. Smith Jr. to Joseph T. Allen, $245,000.

Cuba Mills Ct., 44296-Lawrence E. Moore II to Robert W. Green, $509,000.

Ivymount Terr., 20921-DLJ Mortgage to Modassar S. Ahmed, $285,000.

Laburnum Sq., 43812-Timothy J. Dolan to Wendy R. Henderson, $290,000.

Merion St., 21616-Gabino Moligba to Deutsche Bank, $400,000.

Petworth Ct., 21814-Shelly L. Hearn to Michael A. Strausser, $239,900.

Sibbald Sq., 20642-Centex Homes to Lisa M. Christensen, $266,820.

Vermeer St., 20317-Christopher J. Hill to Acacia Federal Savings Bank, $405,000.

BROADLANDS-ARCOLA

Chickacoan Trail Dr., 21537-Bruce C. Rumph to Umeshram K. Harigopal and Preethi Sundaram, $535,000.

Highcrest Cir., 22821-Brian Fowler to Bryan J. Pierson, $550,000.

Ravenglass Dr., 42806-Robert F. Duronio to Eugene Reinard, $545,000.

Spice Bush Terr., 23407-Vijay Chitla to Freddie Mac, $378,500.

DULLES AREA

Blackthorn Sq., 23152-Dubbie Acuna and Jessica Cudd to Xiumei Lei, $210,000.

Manning Sq., 22037-Darwin C. Sokoken to Manoj N. Gandhi, $233,000.

HAMILTON AREA

Adams Ct., 38234-James F. Delia to Jeffrey L. Hall, $384,000.

Hamilton Station Rd., 17075-Virginia Electric and Power Co. to Mark D. Smith, $290,000.

LEESBURG-LUCKETTS-
LANSDOWNE AREA

Appletree Dr. NE, 102-David W. Bauer Jr. to Michael D. James, $392,000.

Canal Creek Pl., 43231-Haris Iftikhar and Shazia N. Ahmad to Bryan P. Lopez, $635,000.

Covington Terr. NE, 502-Tahir Khan to Erin Bowers, $230,000.

Cypress Ridge Terr., 19385, No. 802-Mary Ann Legg Martin and Susan Legg Slayton to Valska K. Wesselhoft, $160,000.

Jackson Hole Cir., 43529-Barry W. Bishop to Edward C. Taylor, $770,000.


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Real Estate in Moscow

$2,599,999

This two-bedroom apartment in a 35-story high-rise in Moscow has been renovated to include an architectural designer’s studio, with high-end furnishings and finishes covered in the asking price. 

The entrance on the seventh floor has a stained-glass ceiling and panels designed by the owner, an architect who uses the apartment as her studio. Some of the foyer walls are covered with black-and-silver floral patterned wallpaper, others are overlaid with an Italian decorative coating made from silver leaf. The space also has chandeliers and wall sconces made with Swarovski crystals. Its polished wine-colored tile floor leads to the kitchen and the living room just beyond. 

In the kitchen, the ceiling is covered in mirrored mosaic tiles, and a countertop of black granite extends to form a small table for dining. Appliances are by the German company Miele International. The purple tempered-glass kitchen cabinets were manufactured in Italy, as were the ceramic wall tiles. Doors leading to the living room are made of tempered glass carved in a Moscow glasshouse. 

The living room has a black granite wet bar and an Italian-made sofa upholstered in black leather and purple crushed velvet. A large fish tank is recessed into the wall and can be seen from both the living room and the adjacent study. The living room has views of the Ochakovka River.

Off the living room is the master bedroom, which looks out onto Troparevsky Forest Park. Its dark floor is made of wenge, a tropical wood. The walls are covered in decorative silver leaf; the adjoining dressing room is lined with striped zebra wood veneer. A second bedroom and sitting room are off of a hallway near the foyer, as are two bathrooms lined with Italian tiles. Bath fixtures were made by the German companies Villeroy Boch and Miele, except for the American flower-shaped tub in one bath. 

This apartment is in a high-rise complex called Mirax Park, in the Yugo-Zapad neighborhood of southwestern Moscow, which attracts young families and professionals who commute to work into central Moscow, said Elena Yurgeneva, the listing agent, who is a regional director with Knight Frank Russia CIS. The complex has its own restaurant and cafe, fitness center, swimming pool, grocery store, and beauty salon. Buying the unit will also enable the purchase of a space in the parking garage, which can cost anywhere from $50,000 to $80,000, depending on location, the agent said. Travel time to central Moscow varies widely, depending on traffic, from 10 minutes to 90. Moscow Domodedovo Airport is about 40 minutes away by car, Ms. Yurgeneva said. 

MARKET OVERVIEW

The Russian real estate market was privatized with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when residents were given the homes that they had been living in. Prices increased steeply, then dipped sharply from 1998 to 2001 because of an economic crisis in Russia. In the seven-year-long boom following that decline, prices increased sixfold, according to Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.RU, a research and consulting firm.

In 2008, with the global economic crisis, prices fell by about 30 percent, said Anya Levitov, a managing partner at Evans Property Services. Since then the market has been slow to recover — though the luxury sector has rebounded.

“Most expensive new luxury developments today cost more than in 2008,” Ms. Levitov said, “but that is probably the only segment where precrisis levels have been reached and exceeded.”

The average price per square meter for a Moscow home runs $6,000 to $9,000, but luxury homes can cost $25,000 to $35,000 a square meter, said Nadezhda Kot, the head of local sales at Moscow Sotheby’s International Realty. Many of these high-end homes are concentrated in a neighborhood called the Golden Mile, between the Moscow River and Ostozhenka Street, which has a number of new upscale residential developments alongside historic Art Nouveau mansions.

“Last year,” Ms. Kot said, “the maximum price paid was $40 million for a villa in Ostozhenka, the Golden Mile.”

In Mirax Park, apartments typically bring $10,000 to $13,000 a square meter, but this apartment is priced at $17,333 a square meter because it is being sold with all its furnishings and finishes, according to Ms. Yurgeneva.

WHO BUYS IN MOSCOW

Foreigners typically prefer to rent in Moscow, as relatively few live there permanently, brokers said. Some Americans and Europeans, who are tax-paying residents and based in Moscow for work, do decide to settle and buy a house, Ms. Levitov said.

According to Ms. Kot, foreigners generally buy in a range not exceeding $2 million.


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Why To Buy Lowe's Over Home Depot

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    By Brian Harper

    As a native Atlantan, I’m going out on a limb here, and I may never be welcomed back to my hometown again. But we think Lowe‘s (LOW) stock represents a significantly better investment going forward than Home Depot (HD).

    I know what you’re thinking. Home Depot is bigger. They’ve been crushing Lowe’s lately on comp store sales, overall sales productivity is higher, and the stock has risen 25% in the past year versus 5% for Lowe’s.

    That’s a pretty stark contrast. While gross margins were comparable for the two companies, Home Depot enjoyed higher same-store sales of 3.4% for 2011, versus flat comps for Lowe’s. Thus Home Depot is enjoying better operating leverage and the benefits are flowing to the bottom line.

    It wasn’t always this way. Lowe’s stock outperformed Home Depot handily between 1989 and 2009, rising 26 fold versus a 21x increase. Prior to 2009, in 2008 and 2007, Lowe’s had operating margins 174bp and 38bp higher than Home Depot. READ FULL ARTICLE HERE

    To find out more about the company in this article and to see if you
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    Palm Springs Real Estate Gets Huge Boost From BNP Paribas Professional Tennis Event

    Brad Schmett of Luxury Homes by Keller Williams has announced today that Palm Springs real estate is getting a huge boost from professional tennis’ upcoming BNP Paribas Open.

    Palm Springs, California (PRWEB) February 29, 2012

    Brad Schmett, Broker Associate with Luxury Homes by Keller Williams and real estate expert, has today announced that real estate in Palm Springs, CA is getting a huge boost from the upcoming BNP Paribas Open. One of professional tennis’ most popular tournaments, the BNP Paribas Open is being hosted at the magnificent Indian Wells Tennis Garden, located just minutes from Palm Springs, California. This year’s upcoming two week event, which is expected to draw-in nearly 400,000 tennis fans, has put a significant focus on the Palm Springs area – in particular Palm Springs real estate.

    Brad Schmett, an expert in Palm Springs real estate, specializes in helping buyers maximize their real estate investment. Through his many years of service, Schmett has earned a reputation for providing the highest level of service to his clients. Just recently, to better assist his Canadian clientele and help them prepare for the real estate purchase process, Schmett released his online Canadian Buyer’s Guide.

    Schmett states, “I’m delighted at elevated level of interest we’re seeing in our real estate as a result of the excitement surrounding the 2012 BNP Paribas Open. We typically see an increased level of business activity during the event, not 2-3 weeks in advance of the tournament as we’re seeing this year.”

    The 2012 BNP Paribas Open is being held from March 5-18. Nearly all of tennis’ top professional players will participate in this year’s event. Total prize money for 2012 is $9 million.

    “Since early mid-February, 30-35 percent of my out-of-area real estate inquiries have come from 2012 tennis tournament attendees who are also looking to buy real estate in Palm Springs or the neighboring desert cities. There’s considerable excitement about learning more about the incredible real estate buying opportunities here in the Palm Springs area,” says Schmett. “They’ve heard or read about the phenomenal real estate deals, now the want to come in for tennis tournament and check things out for themselves.”

    “It’s a perfect example of combining business with pleasure,” states Schmett. “I can sense the enthusiasm tennis tournament attendees have about the real estate buying opportunities. They know it could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for them.”

    The lowest real estate prices in over a decade, coupled with a high inventory level of Palm Springs homes for sale, has given buyers more options than ever before in the greater Palm Springs real estate market. Schmett urges, “We may never see the likes of this type of buying opportunity in our lifetimes again. Local real estate market conditions, combined with historic lows on mortgage interest rates, have created a near “perfect storm-like” opportunity for buyers. Now – or during the tennis tournament – is definitely a phenomenal time to buy Palm Springs real estate.”

    To find out more about investing in Palm Springs real estate visit http://www.PalmSpringsRealEstateInfo.com.

    About Luxury Homes by Keller Williams: Luxury Homes by Keller Williams – Palm Springs, is an exclusive, elite and sophisticated group of real estate consultants raising the bar for service in the upper-tier Palm Springs area residential real estate market.

    ###

    Brad Schmett
    Luxury Homes by Keller Williams
    760-880-5845
    Email Information


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    Existing-Home Sales Rise Up, Inventory Down

    Existing-Home Sales Rise Up, Inventory Down
    Feb 29, 2012
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    Sales of existing homes were up in January, for the third month of gain out of the last four months, even as inventories continued improving, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    Total existing-home sales – completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops – were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in January 2012, up 4.3% from a downwardly revised 4.38 million-unit pace in December 2012 and 0.7% above a spike to 4.54 million in January 2011.

    “The uptrend in home sales is in line with all of the underlying fundamentals – pent-up household formation, record-low mortgage interest rates, bargain home prices, sustained job creation, and rising rents,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

    Total housing inventory at the end of January 2012 fell 0.4% to 2.31 million existing homes available for sale, or 6.1-month supply at the current pace of sales, and down from a 6.4-month supply in December 2011.

    “The broad inventory condition can be described as moving into a rough balance, not favoring buyers or sellers,” Yun said. “Foreclosure sales are moving swiftly with ready home buyers and investors competing in nearly all markets. A government proposal to turn bank-owned properties into rentals on a large scale does not appear to be needed at this time.”

    Total unsold listed inventory trended down from the record of 4.04 million in July 2007, and is 20.6% below a year ago.

    Freddie Mac reported that the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was a record low 3.92% in January 2012, down from 3.96% in December 2011. The rate was 4.76% in January 2011. Recordkeeping began in 1971.

    “Home buyers over the past three years have had some of the lowest default rates in history,” Yun said. “Entering the market at a low point and buying at discounted prices have greatly helped in that success.”

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    CHR: Renters snap up new apartments in Norwood

    Chestnut Hill Realty, a real estate company also known as CHR, said it was able to lease 54 new apartments in Norwood complex called Norwest Woods within three months of those apartments going on the market, another sign of a tight rental market in Greater Boston.

    During the fourth quarter of 2011, the vacancy rate for the local rental market dropped to a nine-year low of 4 percent, and rents were at record highs, according to data from Reis Inc., a New York company that tracks real estate activity. Those trends were largely driven by an insufficient inventory of rental housing to meet increased demand, analysts said. During tough economic times, many people have chosen to live in rental housing rather than become home owners.

    Chestnut Hill Realty said it recently completed contruction of the final phase of an upgrade project at Norwest Woods. The final phase was the building of 54 one-bedroom apartments. The entire project called for the construction of four buildings with a total of 91 apartments. The upgrade project began in 2008, the firm said. The existing complex had 322 apartments. With the completion of the upgrade project, Norwest Woods now has 406 apartments. (A few older apartments were eliminated from the mix.)

    Citing data from Marcus Millichap, a national real estate investment and research firm, Chestnut Hill Realty noted that 644 new apartment units were built in the Greater Boston area in 2011. The new apartments at Norwest Woods represented 8.4 percent of that total.

    “Although the demand for apartment space has risen sharply in Eastern Massachusetts, a distressed economy and high barriers to entry have prevented production from keeping pace,� Edward Zuker, founder and chief executive of Chestnut Hill Realty, said in a statement. “This new construction helps meet an important need in the region.�

    Established in 1969, Chestnut Hill Realty owns and manages about 4,000 units in 30 apartment communities in Greater Boston and Rhode Island.

    Chris Reidy can be reached at reidy@globe.com.


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    Best Buy Lost in the Amazon Jungle

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    Richard is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

    I used to go to Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) for all my electronic needs. Video cameras, batteries, plasma TVs, electric shavers, you name it, there I bought it. Convenient, quick, ready to use.

    Then last year my computer died. During this tragic time, I needed to remove its memories before laying it to rest in the electronics graveyard, a few months worth of data I hadn’t backed up. Best Buy to the rescue.

    Hard drive enclosure needed: $65? No experience to back up my intuition, but that seems a little high, doesn’t it? Well I need it, what choice do I have, here’s my credit card. 

    Back home I check the price of the item on Amazon. $5! What?! 

    I call my techie friend, expecting him to treat my $5 sighting like I was claiming I had just spotted the Loch Ness Monster. Instead the response comes loudly into my cell phone receiver, “Don’t tell me you just spent $65 on a hard drive enclosure?!”

    (Hiding the evidence behind my back) “No.”

    And with that, I placed my order on Amazon, and returned to “Best Buy” to make a final return, spitting at their disingenuous trademark as I exit the store. 

    You see, as a consumer, I’m willing to pay a little more for the convenience of being able to bring home my purchase, what I don’t like is being treated as a sucker, and offering me the same product for 13 times more qualifies.


    Best Buy- aerial photo as the Amazon envelops it

    When shopping at Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), I’m instantly shown several different competing bids, so I can be certain I’m not going to be paying rip-off prices.

    I worried about customer service — books come as are, no worries there, but my concerns were allayed when I ordered some voice recognition software from an Amazon associate, the software didn’t load onto my computer. I was able to return it for a full refund; Best Buy doesn’t let you return software. 

    From all my encounters, Amazon seems to bend over backwards to ensure your experience is a good one. Obviously they understand the value of retaining loyal customers. Not that my experiences at Best Buy were awful, they were mixed. I felt to ensure good service I should always spend a little time building rapport with the representive who I was dealing with; at Amazon, I just describe what happened (on the rare occurrence that it does) in an email, and it gets taken care of.  

    Now with Amazon’s Amazon Prime, I get my order in two days, and I don’t have to pay the 10% California sales tax. (An incredibly unfair advantage for Amazon, but one that nonetheless has existed for 15 + years)  

    Speaking of Prime, in addition to the shorter wait times, it comes with free video streaming. I’m not ready to say it should replace Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) for you, Amazon’s library is not nearly strong enough, but unlike Netflix, which I cancelled recently, at least Prime videos function properly on my PC. Netflix videos, which after a few minutes are using 100% of my CPU, crash. 

    If Amazon  were to spruce their library up, I’d pay the Prime fee for the videos alone, and the rapid free shipping would be merely a huge bonus. 

    Not only are online retailers more efficient, lacking costly physical locations, enabling better prices, but the specialty stores that exist in the physical world sell the identical products Best Buy does, except with a superior experience. 

    All the traffic that Best Buy used to receive whenever some “must have” tech product came out, be that the original iPhone or Halo, today it’s simply more fun to line line up at the Apple store, with all the other Apple Geeks, and buy it from the sleek well managed “Altar of Jobs” with the Genius Bar. Personally, I’ll just buy it online, thank you very much. 

    Malls all over America are seeing a decline in occupancy due to online retail. I no longer shop at Best Buy, and I used to be an excellent customer, my friends as well. 

    Tomorrow’s show room will be internet video of the product, and your trusted representative will be other users who’ve left product ratings. It’s already happening. 

    Does that mean you should buy Amazon? I love the company, I use them, but the stock trades at 130 times earnings. No matter how much Amazon innovates, or the scale with which they can expand, or their formidable business moat, I just cannot pull the trigger here, the price is too high.

    Netflix is likely to be swallowed by someone, at a price, but there is no real moat for stand-alone streaming film, and as the river they call Amazon Video gathers speed, Netflix will likely succumb to the pressure and be washed away (though their assets still have value).

    Best Buy, has recently followed the market up, a rising tide raising even this leaky ship, a company that has seen a steady erosion in sales, and in a recent quarter where their goal was set to regain lost market share, their margins dropped precipitously and profit fell nearly 30%. 

    Yeah, sure Best Buy has an online store, but since the experience can be viewed “side by side” with Amazon, I’ll leave you to decide which browser to close. 

    In five years best Buy either won’t exist, or they’ll be a shell of their former selves. The big box physical retailer is going the way of the dodo bird, with Circuit City and The Good Guys gone, Best Buy is next. It’s a trend that’s nearly impossible to stop. 

    Best Buy crashed into the Amazon jungle, and they aren’t making it out alive. Short Best Buy, it’ll be the best sale you’ve made. 

    Please feel free to check out more of my writings at Rich Makes You Rich.com and enjoy.


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    Commercial Real Estate Loan Prices Gain in January

    BOSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

    The aggregate value of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans priced by
    DebtX that collateralize CMBS climbed to 86.4% as of January 31, 2012
    from 85.3% as of December 31, 2011. Loan values were 79.8% as of January
    31, 2011.

    “CRE loan prices rose again in January and are now up 8% from a year
    ago,” said DebtX CEO Kingsley Greenland. “CRE loan prices trended upward
    in January as treasury yields and credit spreads declined.”

    In January, DebtX priced 51,399 CRE loans with a $616.1 billion
    aggregate principal balance. These loans, which collateralize 651 US
    CMBS trusts, each received a DXMark®,
    a price based on 10 years of data from billions of dollars in loan sales
    executed by DebtX, the largest marketplace for loan sales. Access to
    individual DXMark prices is available through the BLOOMBERG
    PROFESSIONAL® Service. Type DXMK for more information.

    DebtX’s CMBS loan pricing analysis is part of DXMarket
    Data
    sm, a subscription service that provides loan buyers
    with insight about transactions at www.debtx.com.
    DXMarket Datasm is available to registered DebtX buyers
    and includes six components: Non-Performing Loan Sale Prices, Bank
    Watch, Secondary Loan Market Commentary, CMBS Loan Collateral Prices,
    and Secondary Loan Market Liquidity.

    For more information about DXMark® or DXMarket Datasm,
    contact David Roover, 617.531.3446 or droover@debtx.com.
    For more information about loan sale advisory services, call
    617.531.3400.

    About DebtX

    DebtX is the world’s premier, full-service loan
    sale advisor
    for commercial, consumer and specialty finance debt.
    DebtX operates the largest online marketplace for loan sales, serving
    commercial banks, investment banks, insurance companies, and
    government-sponsored enterprises. DebtX’s innovative deal management
    platform and loan sale process maximize proceeds and have been assessed
    and approved by many of the world’s most sophisticated financial
    institutions for functionality, security and privacy. DebtX provides valuation
    and analytics services
    , including objective mark-to-market loan
    valuations using unique pricing models that incorporate data from
    hundreds of thousands of loans. DebtX provides web-based
    deal management
    platforms for syndication, agency, and loan sale
    professionals. DebtX is based in Boston, with U.S. offices in San
    Francisco, Atlanta, McLean (VA), and New York and European offices in
    the United Kingdom, Spain and Germany. For information, call
    617.531.3400 or visit www.debtx.com.


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    Moderate home-sales gains have yet to boost prices, index shows – Las Vegas Review

    WASHINGTON — Home prices fell in December for a fourth straight month in most major U.S. cities, as modest sales gains in the depressed housing market have yet to lift prices.

    The Standard Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows prices dropped in December from November in 18 of the 20 cities tracked. The steepest declines were in Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. Only Miami and Phoenix saw an increase.

    The declines partly reflect the typical slowdown that comes in the fall and winter. Still, prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities in December compared to the same month in 2010. Only Detroit posted a year-over-year increase. Prices in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa dropped to their lowest points since the housing crisis began.

    “We’re 25 years back on our prices,” said Larry Murphy, president of Las Vegas-based SalesTraq housing research firm. He reported a median existing home price of $100,000 in January, down from $104,900 in December.

    Las Vegas led the nation with 40 percent to 50 percent home price appreciation during the boom years of 2004 and 2005. Then came the crash. Prices have plummeted 65 percent from their peak of $285,000 in 2006, according to SalesTraq. At 3 percent annual appreciation, it would take about 30 years for anyone who bought at the height of the market to regain their lost equity, Murphy said.

    Had prices gone up at a constant 3 percent annually since 2001, today’s median would be $179,000 instead of $100,000, Murphy noted. At the 6 percent growth experienced from 2001 to 2004, the price would have escalated to $325,000.

    Nationwide, prices have fallen 34 percent since the housing bust, and are now back to 2002 levels. A gauge of quarterly national prices, which covers 70 percent of U.S. homes, fell to its lowest point in records dating back to 1987, after being adjusted for inflation.

    “The pick-up in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of SP’s index committee. “If anything, it looks like we might have re-entered a period of decline as we begin 2012.”

    There’s hope among some economists that an increase in sales could stop prices from falling further by the late winter or early spring.

    Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said there are “compelling reasons to believe that the end of the housing crash is finally in sight.”

    Home prices tend to follow sales by about six months. When sales rise, prices rise, too, and an increase in prices would likely create a positive cycle.

    “Stability in home prices will likely persuade more potential buyers that it is now worth getting into the market,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

    The Case-Shiller monthly index covers half of all U.S. homes. It measures prices compared with those in January 2000 and creates a three-month moving average. The December data is the latest available.

    Review-Journal Reporter Hubble Smith contributed to this report.


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    As Home Prices Fall Further, Is It the Right Time to Buy?



    Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. It is as simple as that. If potential buyers see continued home price erosion, they will stay parked on the sidelines. But as with everything else in this unique and historic housing market, perhaps the usual logic doesn’t apply.

    “Housing is one of the great investments right now. I tell people all the time when they come up to me, they say, “What should I do, Mr. Trump?” I say go buy a house,” said Donald Trump earlier today on CNBC.

    “It wouldn’t be an obvious mistake to buy a house now,” hedged Robert Shiller, barely a few hours later.

    Perhaps they were just jumping off Warren Buffett’s declaration yesterday that if he had a way to manage them, he would buy a couple of hundred thousand single family homes and rent them out.

    Housing appears to be rated a “buy” these days, especially among investors, who see a ripe and rising rental market and big potential for income. But is it the right time yet for what I call “organic” buyers to get in? By this I mean people buying a home to actually live in it, raise a family in it, let the dog run around in the back yard. If prices are still falling, couldn’t an even better deal be waiting down the road a bit?

    No. House prices will continue to fall on a national basis at least through 2012, but you have to look past national headlines to your local market, which is likely already recovering nicely. The trouble with the national numbers is that they are heavily weighted toward the lower end of the market and to the distressed end of the market.

    Around 73 percent of homes that sold in January were priced below $250,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Forty-seven percent of homes sold that same month were considered “distressed,” which is either a foreclosure or a short sale (where the lender allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage). With all the activity in these areas, no surprise that prices skew lower.

    The $250,000 to $500,000 price range may now be the sweet spot for the market. Sales in January were up in this price range, and if you have good credit, you are within GSE and FHA loan limits in most markets. While FHA just raised its insurance premiums, which may hurt much-needed first-time homebuyer demand, it is still one of the best loan products out there today, especially for those with lower down payments.

    You cannot time housing any more than you can time the stock market. True, housing moves far more slowly, but that works to its benefit, as prices don’t rise and fall on daily news or even on major events. Sales have clearly bottomed in housing, and prices always lag sales. They will lag longer this time around, no question, but they will come back. Supply and demand will eventually win out, even after an historic crash. If you can’t get a good mortgage now, then perhaps it’s not your time, but if you can, waiting may not buy you much.

    Questions?  Comments?  And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick


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